Commentary
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Patient Capital Quarterly Commentary – Q1 2026

In the first quarter of 2026, equity performance in North America diverged meaningfully. Through March 31, 2026, the S&P 500 Index was down 4.6%1 for the quarter, while the S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index gained 3.3%2, extending the Canadian market’s quarterly winning streak to seven. The U.S. market was dragged lower by sharp declines in mega-cap technology stocks, while Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index benefited from its heavier exposure to financials, energy, and materials.

On the economic front, the U.S. economy entered 2026 in reasonable shape but faced increasing cross-currents. GDP growth had slowed to an annualized rate of 0.7%3 in the fourth quarter of 2025, though that figure was distorted by a government shutdown that subtracted 1.2 percentage points from growth; consumer spending grew at an annualized 2.0%4 and business fixed investment at 2.2%5, boosted by data center and AI-related capital expenditure. The unemployment rate stabilized at 4.4% as of February 2026, after having risen to 4.5%6 in November 2025.

In Canada, economic conditions were softer, with the S&P Global Composite PMI recording 47.6 in March — a fifth consecutive month in contraction territory. Real GDP rose 0.1%7 in January and Statistics Canada’s flash estimate pointed to 0.2%8 growth in February, but more recent business surveys showed services activity contracting in March and manufacturing losing momentum. The Middle East conflict and trade tensions with the United States were major factors in Canada’s softening economy. Oil prices began the year at approximately US$60 per barrel but rose sharply in late February following the outbreak of the conflict involving Iran. Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional oil and gas infrastructure heightened supply concerns, pushing prices materially higher, as reflected in the chart below.

Since the United States and Israel commenced military operations against Iran, oil and equity markets have experienced elevated volatility, as investors reacted to rapid developments and ongoing official communications.

Crude Oil ($ per barrel)

Lysander Patient Capital Equity Fund (the “Fund”) continues to be well positioned. As of March 31st, the Fund’s total portfolio yield was 4.5% and the portfolio’s overall characteristics continue to compare favorably to major indices such as the S&P 500 Index, and the S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index. Relative performance versus the S&P 500 Index and S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index in the first quarter of 2026 was positively impacted by a lack of exposure to mega-cap technology stocks, strong energy sector and financial sector performance and the realization of profits in some U.S. based holdings. 

  1. S&P Global
  2. S&P Global
  3. Bureau of Economic Analysis
  4. Bureau of Economic Analysis
  5. Bureau of Economic Analysis
  6. Bureau of Labour Statistics
  7. Statistics Canada
  8. Statistics Canada
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Lysander Funds Limited (“Lysander”) is the investment fund manager of Lysander-Patient Capital Equity Fund (the “Fund”). Patient Capital Management (“Patient Capital”) is the portfolio manager of the Fund. This document was prepared by Patient Capital as portfolio manager of the Fund. In this document, “we”, “us”, and “our” means Patient Capital. This document has been prepared solely for information purposes. Information in this document is not intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice and is made available on an “as is" basis. Neither Lysander nor Patient Capital make any warranties or representations regarding the information herein. Information in this document is subject to change without notice. Neither Lysander nor Patient Capital assume any duty to update any information herein. Certain information in this document has been derived or obtained from sources believed to be trustworthy and/or reliable. Neither Lysander nor Patient Capital assume responsibility for the accuracy, currency, reliability or correctness of any such information.

Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated

This document is not an invitation to invest in the Fund and does not constitute a public offering of sale. Purchases in the Fund can only be made through an Investment Professional on the terms in the applicable Fund’s offering document by eligible investors. Each purchaser of units in a fund may have statutory or contractual right of action.

This document may contain forward-looking statements. Statements concerning a Fund’s or entity’s objectives, goals, strategies, intentions, plans, beliefs, expectations and estimates, and the business, operations, financial performance and condition are forward looking statements. The words “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “intend”, “aims”, “may”, “will”, “would” and similar expressions and the negative of such expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, although not all forward-looking statements contain these identifying words. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. While Lysander and Patient Capital consider these risks and uncertainties to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect.

Nothing in this document should be considered a recommendation to buy, sell or short a particular security. Any specific securities or positions discussed are intended as an illustration of the portfolio manager’s selection process. The portfolio manager may sell these positions at any time, or purchase positions that have previously been sold. The positions may increase or decrease in value after the date hereof, and the portfolio that holds such positions may accordingly gain or lose money on the investment. The statements by the portfolio manager in its commentaries are intended to illustrate its approach in managing the portfolio and should not be relied upon for any other purpose. Certain information in this document has been derived or obtained from sources believed to be trustworthy and/or reliable. Neither Lysander nor Patient Capital assume responsibility for the accuracy, currency, reliability or correctness of any such information.

The S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index is comprised of equity securities of some of the largest companies in Canada. The S&P 500 Index tracks the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on exchanges in the United States. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Source: TSX © Copyright 2026 TSX Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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